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Our Purpose:. Latest Stock Picks. Interactive Chart. All Market Moves Earnings. Glassdoor Rating Company Rating. Frank C. Sullivan 10 Ratings. Business Summary A holding company with its subsidiaries that manufactures, markets and sells various chemical product lines, including paints, protective coatings and roofing systems, sealants and adhesives. View Premium Services. SHW Sherwin-Williams. Our business in Asia is relatively modest compared to some of our peers. We're not seeing much of an impact mostly because we don't have a big slug of business there, and the business that we do have is driven by our industrial product lines.
And so at this point, it's relatively stable. We're not seeing much negative impact. As it relates to Europe, Europe was recovering more slowly than North America for sure. And that recovery seems to be OK today, although we certainly -- we have not seen any meaningful disruption to our business activities as of yet, although we're certainly heightened to that.
As it relates to the Ukraine situation, we were very quick and early to discontinue any and all business activities in Russia. We don't have any manufacturing business there. And we both felt it was the right thing to do and certainly wanted to respond to concerns that a significant number of our workforce in European manufacturing and distribution of Ukrainian descent.
And so that's the impact on Russia and the Russian war on Ukraine. But in general, we're heightened of kind of anticipating impacts but we haven't seen it yet. That's very helpful. Thank you, Frank. And just in terms of the energy end markets, I mean, obviously, you've seen a major step function higher with energy prices, etc.
Our energy exposure is mostly in our performance coatings group and mostly in Carboline. Again, as you can see, we got high teens organic growth, high single-digit unit volume. And there's somewhat higher growth in that business than average in those businesses or product lines that are exposed to energy markets and we see that continuing. So there's a little bit of a double-edged sword in that it is driving a significant increase in capital spending and business for us in our industrial segments.
It's also driving a significant increase in our raw material costs as well. Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America. You have this intermediary between you and your end customer in your consumer segment. And I just was curious, what is the process that you go through to get price in the consumer segment?
Is that -- is there a delay? Is that a negotiation? Does that represent a bigger challenge for you than in your other segments? There is typically a delay and yes, it is a negotiation, particularly across our large customers. We've announced three price increases over the last 12 months. And the timing of those being instituted across large customers, it varies a little bit, not a lot.
And Frank, you mentioned labor shortages in this segment. Is that your -- is that RPM employee labor shortages? Is that your customer or distribution channel? And is that improving at this point? It was really in two areas. And so it had a disproportionate impact on our consumer business, particularly Rust-Oleum. We also saw it in our consumer business with the traditionally just-in-time freight delivery of raws into our plants and then distribution where some of our customers pick up, and in some cases, we handle freight.
And there was a disproportionate impact over that period of time, we believe, because of omicron on freight availability and truckers, and so that impacted the segment as well. Yes, we are. In that category, we're seeing things improve, and so the flow through our plants is significantly better. That will help profitability and margins as we go into the fourth quarter. The omicron spike was shockingly quick, high, and then dissipated pretty quickly.
And so we're back to a much more normal pace in terms of not having that same disruption at the end of February and in March. Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. This is Steven Haynes on for Vincent. Thanks for taking the question. I just want to ask a question on cash flow. So could you just talk a little bit on how you're thinking about operating cash generation for the full year and if you're expecting kind of a big release of working capital in the fourth quarter?
You're absolutely right. Our operating cash flows were negatively impacted by working capital, largely driven by supply chain issues we've been discussing and inflation, quite honestly. We expect that this inflation is going to continue, and we're going to continue to purchase opportunistically where we can to help lock in availability and price.
So you may see some unusual relationships in working capital as it relates to cash flows for the next few quarters. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the conversion cost. Is there a way you can maybe size like, I guess, the cumulative impact throughout the full year so far, and just so we can get a like an idea of like what the upside is when ultimately, that begins to reverse?
If you look at our EBIT margin in general quarter-by-quarter and, in particular, for instance, this quarter where we're suffering the worst in consumer, the vast majority of that EBIT margin decline is a gross margin decline, though we don't disclose gross margins by segment. And of that, I would tell you about two-thirds are maybe a little bit more are material-related and about one-third is operating efficiency and throughput in the plants.
And so we fully expect in all of our businesses, as we get back to normal, the workforce disruptions are mitigated or eliminated and put behind us and we have normal flow-through in our plants to where we were just a couple of years ago, that, that one-third impact on our margins would be recovered.
With regard to your performance coatings segment, you said in your prepared remarks that you're seeing explosive growth in emerging markets. That word explosive got my attention. So I was wondering if you could kind of talk through where you're seeing the strongest growth.
And what exactly is driving that? Is it to do with maybe some of the acquisition activity that you've done or more organic in nature? Curious if you can offer any color there. It's more organic in nature, and we've taken a broader RPM platform approach to some of the developing markets.
And so there's a really good, both cooperation between our performance coatings group and our construction products group, the two groups of RPM that have the greatest international exposure and the greatest developing world exposure, and a real focus on driving organic growth and investing. Some of it is a result of a more intense focus on a more RPM platform basis and putting these regions under leaders who are responsible for a broader swath -- proven leaders who are responsible for a broader swath of RPM businesses and products, and it's working.
The last thing I would note is it's explosive on a relatively small base, but if we keep growing that base, it'll keep getting bigger and become a more meaningful part of our business. And then my second question was much broader in nature.
If I look at Slide 11 of your deck, your sales forecast for the fourth quarter is extremely uniform across all of your segments. They're all expected to grow at a low teens pace. And so I was wondering if you can talk about Perhaps it's early to get specific on guidance there.
But sitting here today, how would you expect those trends to diverge moving forward? Do you have in your mind a segment that you would expect to grow materially faster than the others or slower at the other end of the spectrum? So I think two comments on that, Kevin. One is, I think the furthest out we can really see is a quarter or two.
So as I mentioned earlier, as we sit here today, I would expect every one of our segments, including consumer, to be generating solid sales and earnings growth in Q1. And the momentum that we are seeing in our performance coatings group and construction products group will continue. The specialty products group should be back to record margins, not just higher sales and earnings.
And we'll see solid recovery in consumer, both on the top line and bottom line in part because the actions we're taking are taking hold, in part because of disruptions of COVID are being put behind us and in part because we'll be rounding some easier comps in consumer. So you ought to see record results in Q1 for RPM on a consolidated business in each of our segments.
I think this outlook really is a continuation of what we're experiencing in our three more industrial segments and an expectation that we're finally going to see positive results out of consumer. Longer term, again, unless the dynamics change, we would expect to have a solid fiscal '23, and we'll provide pretty good details on that in July.
And we also hope to be able to provide some longer-term perspective on where we're going with a MAP to Growth 2. But our willingness to get out there and make longer-term commitments has been disrupted by COVID and supply chain challenges that were working their way into something more normal and stable until the Russian war on Ukraine. And so I think that's the caveat here. We're not seeing much of an impact on our European business yet.
But time will tell in the coming months as to what impact there might be and to what extent. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you're well. So I guess I just wanted to understand the low teens guidance. I think you mentioned So is that to imply kind of low single-digit unit volume growth or maybe a little bit better and offset by a little bit of FX pressure? How should we think about kind of your volume versus price dynamics?
So you could see results on an organic basis in the mid-to-high teens. That's going to be knocked down a little bit by the strengthening U. And so that's where we are. It will be a mix of both. But I think we feel pretty comfortable with this guidance. It just depends on how quickly the actions we're taking in consumer affect a stronger recovery there.
And I guess I also wanted to just follow up on a comment you made earlier as far as potentially some of the cost pressures that you've been feeling over the last couple of years have been plateauing or flattening out. And then there was a little bit of a spike, I guess, with the Russia-Ukraine invasion. And has that moderated now? It does appear that some of the energy and price impacts have started to moderate as well.
Would you say that that's the case? And do you see that this is kind of a longer-term impact or is it just kind of transitory? It's hard to say right now. Again, we were seeing some underlying positive trends in things like ethylene, propylene, and even some of our direct-purchase raw materials. And all of that reversed with the Russian war in Ukraine. And really, who knows?
And I'm not trying to be cagey here. If this thing is resolved, which I think the world is praying for relatively quickly, then I do think we could see some stability. If this thing expands and has greater impact on oil and gas prices as well as some of the organic resins that are impacting that we purchase principally from India, but they've spiked up for reasons that I don't -- some people do, I don't directly understand other than they've spiked up because of the impact of the Russian war.
It's hard to know how this will expand and what impact that will have on raws. And so we are paying attention to both its impact on our European business, which so far, thankfully, has not been much and its impact on raw material costs, which at least in the near term have reversed an otherwise positive trend.
I know that there was a greater focus on MAP to Growth over the last couple of years. But are you finding yourselves getting back into the inorganic market as well? How would you characterize the environment there? And if there's any focus, what areas are you focusing on and how are you seeing valuations? So the pipeline of the typical RPM, small- to medium-sized product lines is pretty good.
That's been our bread and butter. Large transactions have been in extraordinary prices. And I think that you're going to see some mitigation and valuations as interest rates rise, and inflation is seen as something that is other than temporal, and we would welcome that. And so that's kind of where we are.
We wouldn't expect to be an aggressive player at these historic high valuations, which seem to be persisting now in the face of significant raw material costs. I can tell you Rusty, Matt Ratajczak, Mike Laroche, Rusty's team did a year bond at the end of January and we're able to capture a 2.
And if we turned around and do that bond today, it would cost us 4. And so I don't know how well the rise in interest rates and its impact on incremental cost of capital is being reflected in the markets yet, but eventually, it will be. Just a clarification, first off, just on the raws inflation, make sure I heard it right. And I guess when you think about that in terms of total variable cost inflation in COGS, what would that number look like?
And that's materials and packaging. It does not incorporate freight or labor, which are also well, although certainly not to the same extent. And so they have some higher outliers in relationship to their -- the small packaging nature of our consumer businesses and the disproportionate impact of acrylic resins on consumer versus the rest of our businesses.
That's helpful. And just a specific question on Europe and specifically the performance segment. An epoxy producer earlier shut down some capacity in the region. And part of that decision was related with lower demand.
That seems a bit counter in terms of what you guys are seeing in terms of that segment. So curious if you have any thoughts or comments around that. We have been able to pass on price. There was a reference earlier to our ability to provide supply and apply, which is benefiting us both in a lot of our roofing businesses as well as the Stonhard flooring business, and so that's been an advantage for us. Epoxy resins and some of the intermediate chemicals in the epoxies had some availability challenges earlier in the year.
As we sit here today, we're in pretty good shape. Can you tell how much it was in this quarter, how much it was on consumer? And what would you think you might experience in the fourth quarter and how do you think about '23? I don't think we had much in the way of discernible lost revenue in Q3, and it had as much to do with the seasonal nature of our business, where, as you know, our third quarter is meaningfully lower than our other three quarters.
And so we haven't seen as much of an impact that we can point to. It is possible that it would be an impact in Q4 equal to what we saw in Q1 and Q2 just because Q4 is a significantly large quarter for us as we build into a construction season and we build into a consumer DIY season, particularly for exterior-use products. But the short answer is it did not have a noticeable or a measurable impact in Q3 like it did in the prior quarters.
I would think it would be half of that and it would be predominantly in consumer, unless there are raw material disruptions as a result of the Russian war on Ukraine that we don't anticipate sitting here today. But we don't have the raw material disruptions in our industrial businesses that we had for the first half of the year.
I mean, for the first half of the year, we had enough significant raw material disruptions, either of direct raw materials or ingredients that went into the chemical raw materials we purchased, that we had to shut production in numerous places. That is not occurring as we sit here today. And on the consumer side, the disruptions that we had, both from a raw material availability perspective and just the normal throughput is improving again as we sit here today.
And my second question is just on the -- on resins, what percentage of your cost of goods sold baskets are epoxy resins, alkyd resins, acrylic resins? Like if you add it all together, is it like third of your material costs? Is it bigger than that? And what percentage can you make in-house now? Or maybe like what percentage can you make next year, given the manufacturing capabilities you acquired?
You mentioned some of the bigger ones we do buy, acrylic resins, alkyd resins, epoxy resins. They are meaningful to different product lines. In terms of in-house production, we are supplementing, as we've talked about, in alkyd resins. That's a nice facility in Texas to absorb shocks in supply like we've had over the last 12 months. But we continue to do business with a number of suppliers of alkyd resins and expect to continue that in the future.
As I said, we were moving in the right direction and then another long-term supplier withdrew their capacity from the market in the last couple of months as well, which was unexpected and something we're adjusting to. In terms of your savings program, are there any measurable savings from the last bit of like the MAP program that you saw in the quarter? Or was all of that used up by -- because some of it is obviously the procurement of raw materials.
So was there any measurable savings you can quantify that you've gotten from the MAP program like incremental year over year? So it's been hugely -- the timing was lucky. It's been hugely beneficial for us as we faced the disruptions over the last year. And my last question is on the consumer business. So PPG expanded its relationship with Home Depot in primers and sealers and crafting paint and stains. And when you look at your market share at Home Depot or generally your big-box retail business, do you think your share is like flat or up or down?
Can you tell? I don't think we have lost any market share and there's no area where we can point to. The biggest challenge for us and for most people in the consumer markets as well as some of the basic architectural paint business is supply. It's where we operated for a long time. And as a result of both the COVID disruption and supply chain challenges, fill rates have been significantly lower. And that's been a challenge for us, for others in our industry, and, quite candidly, when you go to one of the big retailers, for people in a lot of places.
So the challenge is supply relative to raw material availability and costs and COVID-related disruptions much more so than market share challenges at this point. And we are expanding capacity in our consumer businesses to make sure as we put these disruptions behind us, that we can get back to those high fill rates and maintain market share and grow.
This is actually Richard on for Mike. So first question, you did mention that the Russian invasion had a meaningful impact on the supply chain, obviously. Is that comment based on just the higher derivative price for oil and products? Or is there specific products which may not be available in terms of supply chain, such as CIO2 or other ones? We have not seen availability issues directly, but we saw a pretty quick reversal in what seemed like stabilizing prices in some basic commodity chemicals, some trends that were moving in the right direction that would suggest that maybe our raws would be stabilizing or perhaps, over time, going down and that reversed very quickly.
And so it's, obviously, oil -- directly, oil and solvents and things like that but it impacted all of our resins. And then as I mentioned earlier, some of the bio-based resins, soy-based resins, soybeans, stuff like that, there are some availability challenges there and whether those become big problems or get corrected here in the coming weeks and months, time will tell.
And then just a follow-up on the EBIT guidance, low teens across the board, I mean, basically, can you give us some color in terms of where you see the most growth on the EBIT side? And obviously, for consumer, do you expect sequential improvement as part of that? This is the operator. I apologize but there will be a slight delay in today's conference. Please hold and the conference will resume shortly. Thank you for your patience. We appear to have a disconnect, and I believe we're back live on the conference call.
So operator, if there are any additional questions, we would be happy to take them. Your next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison from Seaport Research. Maybe just to, I guess, close the loop out on the last question that was asked. I didn't hear the response, but do you see particular segments with that low teens EBIT guidance for next quarter, particular segments exceeding that?
And then I think my question would be if the consumer business, do you expect EBIT there to be up on a year-over-year basis? So I would tell you that our construction products group, performance coatings group have an opportunity to outperform that low teens between price and unit volume. It will be somewhat mitigated by FX, given the strength of the dollar. But we see good momentum there continuing in both.
They are generating record results on top of really strong results a year ago in Q4. Our Consumer business will be moving in the right direction. And we're seeing that.
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Moving Averages. Summary: sell. EMA5 0. Price level prediction. Exchangers Pairs Historical price Historical Social. Date step 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months. Date range. Tweets by RenderPayment. Tweets by ethstatus. TensorFlow , Keras , PyTorch , etc. The volatility columns are simply the difference between high and low price divided by the opening price. We must decide how many previous days it will have access to.
We build little data frames consisting of 10 consecutive days of data called windows , so the first window will consist of the th rows of the training set Python is zero-indexed , the second will be the rows , etc. Picking a small window size means we can feed more windows into our model; the downside is that the model may not have sufficient information to detect complex long term behaviours if such things exist.
Looking at those columns, some values range between -1 and 1, while others are on the scale of millions. We need to normalise the data, so that our inputs are somewhat consistent. Typically, you want values between -1 and 1. This is actually quite straightforward with Keras, you simply stack componenets on top of each other better explained here.
The function also includes more generic neural network features, like dropout and activation functions. We start by examining its performance on the training set data before June Instead of relative changes, we can view the model output as daily closing prices. The model could access the source of its error and adjust itself accordingly.
We should be more interested in its performance on the test dataset, as this represents completely new data for the model. Caveats aside about the misleading nature of single point predictions, our LSTM model seems to have performed well on the unseen test set. The most obvious flaw is that it fails to detect the inevitable downturn when the eth price suddenly shoots up e.
The predicted price regularly seems equivalent to the actual price just shifted one day later e. Furthermore, the model seems to be systemically overestimating the future value of Ether join the club, right? We can also build a similar LSTM model for Bitcoin- test set predictions are plotted below see Jupyter notebook for full code. Our fancy deep learning LSTM model has partially reproducted a autregressive AR model of some order p , where future values are simply the weighted sum of the previous p values.
We can define an AR model in these mathematical terms:. The good news is that AR models are commonly employed in time series tasks e. More complex does not automatically equal more accurate. The predictions are visibly less impressive than their single point counterparts. So there are some grounds for optimism. Moving back to the single point predictions, our deep machine artificial neural model looks okay, but so did that boring random walk model.
Like the random walk model, LSTM models can be sensitive to the choice of random seed the model weights are initially randomly assigned. The error will be calculated as the absolute difference between the actual and predicted closing prices changes in the test set.
Maybe AI is worth the hype after all! Those graphs show the error on the test set after 25 different initialisations of each model. The LSTM model returns an average error of about 0. Aiming to beat random walks is a pretty low bar. While cryptocurrency investments will definitely go up in value forever, they may also go down. Unfortunately, its predictions were not that different from just spitting out the previous value.
How can we make the model learn more sophisticated behaviours? More bespoke trading focused loss functions could also move the model towards less conservative behaviours. Easier said than done! This is probably the best and hardest solution. And any pattern that does appear can disappear as quickly see efficient market hypothesis.
Just think how different Bitcoin in is to craze-riding Bitcoin of late Any model built on data would surely struggle to replicate these unprecedented movements.
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